From Turkey comes the news that the country’s attack helicopter procurement program (ATAK) has progressed to its final stage with the elimination of two of the four candidates. Fortunately, Denel’s CSH-2 Rooivalk has made this new shortlist, greatly increasing its chances of winning the competition to provide the Turkish armed forces with at least 50 helicopters in a contract worth over $2 billion.

Clearly, such a deal would be a significant boost to not only Denel, but the entire South African defence industry. If Denel does win the contract, it will result in a cash injection equal to around four times its total annual turnover, injecting new life into the ailing company and filtering down to the network of smaller companies that supply Denel with the Rooivalk’s subcomponents. So even though the deal would likely involve technology transfer and some manufacturing in Turkey, the SA defence industry will derive much benefit from it. Especially if, as I mentioned a few months ago, Denel, Aerosud and ATE go forward with their plan to develop a new version of the Rooivalk.

I do need to inject a word of caution though. Even though Denel’s chances at winning this competition have taken a vast step forward, it’s still by no means certain that the Rooivalk will be selected. It still has to face off against the other helicopter on the shortlist, Italy’s AgustaWestland A129 Mangusta, which is a very capable machine with an excellent chance of winning. It also has an advantage over the Rooivalk in that it has already qualified and integrated American weapons like the Hellfire and TOW, whereas the Rooivalk has yet to do so and instead uses Denel’s Mokopa anti-tank missile – impressive on paper but as yet unproven.

As with any major military purchase, the political aspect is also vital and here again Denel is at a slight disadvantage. Politically, South Africa has very little to offer the Turkish government, as our influence is small and we’re not exactly important to Turkey’s ambitions. Italy, on the other hand, is an influential member of the European Union and thus one of the countries Turkey must woo if it intends to see its wish to join the EU fulfilled any time soon. It’s certainly conceivable that this would include awarding the ATAK contract to AgustaWestland, if Turkey’s government believed this would help improve relations.

So the Rooivalk still faces an uphill battle, even while its chances have improved. I’m hopeful about its chances, but I’d recommend that Denel leave the champagne in the fridge for now.