Rumours abound that South Africa pipes ‘permanently loaned’ electricity and food to Zimbabwe to help support Mugabe’s regime. But going forward that bit about the electricity may not matter, and this may point to a widescale weakening of the central state and its ability to coerce Zimbabweans to its will.

Indeed, in future they may likely not be able to either accept or use such electricity imports anyway. Mugabe and Zanu-PF have done such a good job of allowing the electricity grid to deteriorate to a state of collapse. The shrinking economy also means collapsing levels of production.

This also relates to the central state attempts to block exports of machinery, as farmers and businesses try to flee the country with their means of production even as repairs cannot be afforded for others. All of which in turn means less electricity is being used. What’s interesting there, besides the signs of continued de-industrialisation, is the attitude also of SW Radio Africa and some of its listeners towards this and other laws. One of utter disregard and open suggestions that a quick bribe will get around such obstacles anyway.

That’s ominous for three reasons. Considering this in conjunction with Sokwanele’s comments it suggest that, at least on some level, there is growing cynicism from Zimbabweans towards the state’s pronouncements. The propoganda is now becoming little more than a tool for the state to convince itself and its supporters, and no one else.

Consider the shrinking economy too. Remember that a government has to draw revenue off of the economy, and if that is shrinking so is the revenue and capabilities of the same government. This weakness in turn means it cannot so readily enforce the pronouncements or threats it makes. Coupled with the increasing growth of the black markets and inability to stop it, it means even more sectors of the economy ‘exit’ the grasp of the central state and even more tax revenue is lost.

The much hyped threat of a Z$1,000,000 or R1,000 fine (about $164) for trading in these markets is in itself cheap, and hardly a disincentive. A while back the Zimbabwean Dollar worth of it may have meant something. Yet because of the very state caused hyper-inflation that causes such markets its significance has been eroded away.

But the final indicator is the most important. It’s a signal that the central state is increasingly losing either the ability or will to coerce its subjects, as well as control corruption and agendas within itself. In the case of Communism, this same malaise eroded the ability of such central states enough to contribute to their collapse. In other places, it eventually led to civil war.

So will Zimbabwe collapse soon? No, it actually won’t. The above are merely variables in a much larger equation, one where the biggest is Mugabe himself. Indeed, one of the most important is how intent he is to hold on to power at the cost of stability within his own ranks. It might be then that with his eventual passing Zimbabwe will find itself on the road to civil war. Albeit initiated by factions within Zanu-PF itself, and not the MDC, fighting over the carcass of a collapsed central state.