There’s a popular meme I’ve noticed gaining traction in the blogosphere – the idea that the Catholic Church, by raising Joseph Ratzinger to the position of pontiff, has chosen to be small and pure, rather than big, diverse and accommodating. “The Ratzingerians want to empty the pews in America and start over,” says Andrew Sullivan, in a fairly typical example of this type of reasoning. But I’m sure Ratzinger himself wouldn’t see it that way, and I’m not convinced either. “Size versus purity” may well be a false dichotomy.

Religion and modernity have an interesting relationship. The conventional wisdom is that modernity undermines religion, and to some extent, that’s true. Look at this report on Christianity in America: even in the USA, which is by far the most religious of all the first world countries, Christianity is in decline. But that’s only part of the story. Within the Christian faith, moderate denominations have been losing members rapidly, while conservative denominations have been steadily growing.

What does this mean? Apparently, people are divided in their attitudes towards modernity. Some embrace it unequivocally, and they’re the ones who are quick to abandon religion in favour of secular humanism and the delights of hedonistic utilitarianism. Call them Group A. Then there’s Group B – people who worry about where all these “evolving standards of morality” will eventually take us, and desperately want to hold on to some sense of moral absolutism. Think John Stuart Mill vs. Immanuel Kant.

When liberal Catholics and conservative Catholics debate church attendance, what they’re really arguing about is their target market. Liberals like Andrew Sullivan want to relax the rules in order to hang on to some of the Group A people. Unfortunately, “relaxing the rules” robs religion of precisely that which makes it so appealing to Group B people – a sense of moral certainty.

And let’s be honest. Successful marketing depends on targeting the right audience. If you’re a church, going after Group A people makes no sense. They’re too fond of secularism – ultimately, they’re just not interested in what you’re offering. The most rational approach is to focus your efforts on keeping the Group B types on board. That goes a long way toward explaining why “moderate” denominations have declined, as well as the success of conservative groups like Opus Dei.

That’s why I don’t buy into the idea that the election of Benedict XVI will cause a large, long-term drop in Church numbers. If anything, the opposite is probably true.
—UPDATE:

Looks like Abiola Lapite has been thinking along similar lines. I didn’t plagiarise his idea, I promise!