Looks like the BBC gave South African democracy a hand in Kwa-Zulu Natal when one of their reporters informed the IEC of fraudulent voter registration conducted by ANC supporters.

So one is left wondering that if the Kwa-Zulu Natal election result is a close finished, might we not see a Florida 2000 scenario? That’s bearing in mind that the DA is in alliance with the IFP and the NNP is in alliance with the ANC, three of whom are also battling it out for the Western Cape. Such a Florida scenario in Kwa-Zulu Natal may meantime stoke the fires of ANC: IFP supporter conflict if it does come to pass, but it likely won’t reach the pre-1994 levels.

What one can infer though, is that the Western Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal will likely continue being bugbear provinces to the ANC for the foreseeable future going forward. Three elections have seen them unable to secure complete victories in these two provinces, and which they enjoy elsewhere. Indeed, Limpopo, Free State, the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga will in turn always be potential ANC strongholds.

Lastly, I wonder whether the Independent Democrats campaigned aggressively enough in the Northern Cape. That province has a large coloured population and after the Western Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces, had the third lowest level of support for the ANC until the NNP allied itself with them. If Patricia De Lille did not undertake to sway the coloured voters there, who elsewhere have shown an affinity for the ID, it may turn out to be a critical election error on her part.